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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.